The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that passenger demand in September remained highly depressed.
- Total demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) was 72.8% below September 2019 levels (only slightly improved over the 75.2% year-to-year decline recorded in August). Capacity was down 63% compared to a year ago and load factor fell 21.8 percentage points to 60.1%.
- International passenger demand in September plunged 88.8% compared to September 2019, basically unchanged from the 88.5% decline recorded in August. Capacity plummeted 78.9%, and load factor withered 38.2 percentage points to 43.5%.
- Domestic demand in September was down 43.3% compared to the previous year, improved from a 50.7% decline in August. Compared to 2019, capacity fell 33.3% and the load factor dropped 12.4 percentage points to 69.9%.
“We have hit a wall in the industry’s recovery. A resurgence in COVID-19 outbreaks--particularly in Europe and the US--combined with governments’ reliance on the blunt instrument of quarantine in the absence of globally aligned testing regimes, has halted momentum toward re-opening borders to travel. Although domestic markets are doing better, this is primarily owing to improvements in China and Russia. And domestic traffic represents just a bit more than a third of total traffic, so it is not enough to sustain a general recovery,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
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| September 2020 (% year-on-year) | World share1 | RPK | ASK | PLF (%-pt)2 | PLF (level)3 |
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| Total Market | 100.0% | -72.8% | -63.0% | -21.8% | 60.1% |
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| Africa | 2.1% | -85.6% | -72.4% | -34.7% | 37.8% | | Asia Pacific | 34.6% | -63.5% | -57.7% | -11.0% | 69.2% | | Europe | 26.8% | -75.8% | -64.3% | -27.9% | 58.6% | | Latin America | 5.1% | -76.2% | -72.4% | -11.3% | 70.6% | | Middle East | 9.1% | -88.9% | -77.2% | -38.5% | 36.5% | | North America | 22.3% | -74.7% | -60.0% | -30.3% | 52.5% |
| 1% of industry RPKs in 2019 2Year-on-year change in load factor 3Load Factor Level |  International Passenger Markets
- European carriers’ September demand collapsed 82.5% versus a year ago, which was a setback compared to an 80.5% decline in August. Europe was the only region to see a deterioration in traffic compared to August, owing to renewed infections that led to a wave of border closings. Capacity contracted 70.7% and load factor fell by 35.1 percentage points to 51.8%.
- Asia-Pacific airlines’ September traffic sank 95.8% compared to the year-ago period, virtually unchanged from a 96.2% drop in August. The region continued to suffer from the steepest fall in traffic as flight restrictions have remained stringent with little re-opening of borders. Capacity plummeted 89.6% and load factor shrank 46.8 percentage points to 31.7%, the lowest among regions.
- Middle Eastern airlines posted a 90.2% traffic decline for September, improved from a 92.3% demand drop in August. Capacity tumbled 78.5%, and load factor sank 40.9 percentage points to 34.4%.
- North American carriers saw a 91.3% traffic decline in September, a slight improvement from a 92.0% decline in August. Capacity toppled 78.3%, and load factor dropped 49.8 percentage points to 33.4%.
- Latin American airlines faced a 92.2% demand drop in September, compared to the same month last year, versus a 93.4% decline in August versus August 2019. Capacity dived 87.9% and load factor dropped 29.3 percentage points to 53.3%, highest among the regions.
- African airlines’ traffic sank 88.5% in September, barely budged from an 88.7% drop in August. Capacity contracted 74.7%, and load factor fell 39.4 percentage points to 32.6%, which was the second lowest among regions.
| Domestic Passenger Markets | | September 2020 (% year-on-year) | World share1 | RPK | ASK | PLF (%-pt)2 | PLF (level)3 |
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| Domestic | 36.2% | -43.3% | -33.3% | -12.4% | 69.9% |
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| Australia | 0.8% | -88.7% | -82.8% | -28.3% | 54.1% | | Brazil | 1.1% | -55.3% | -54.7% | -1.1% | 80.7% | | China P.R. | 9.8% | -2.8% | 2.3% | -4.2% | 79.4% | | Japan | 1.1% | -59.3% | -45.6% | -19.5% | 58.1% | | Russian Fed. | 1.5% | 2.7% | 6.8% | -3.3% | 82.4% | | US | 14.0% | -65.0% | -49.3% | -25.6% | 57.0% |
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| | 1% of industry RPKs in 2019 2Year-on-year change in load factor 3Load Factor Level | - Australia’s domestic traffic was down 88.7% compared to September 2019 virtually unchanged from August (-88.8%), amid continuing strict containment measures.
- Brazil’s domestic traffic fell 55.3% in September, an 11.7 percentage point improvement compared to August.
The Bottom Line:
“Last week we provided analysis showing that the airline industry cannot slash costs fast enough to compensate for the collapse in passenger demand brought about by COVID-19 and government border closures and quarantines. Some 4.8 million aviation-sector jobs are imperiled, as are a total of 46 million people in the broader economy whose jobs are supported by aviation. To avoid this economic catastrophe, governments need to align on testing as a way to open borders and enable travel without quarantine; and provide further relief measures to sustain the industry through the dark winter ahead. A broader economic recovery is only possible through the connectivity provided by aviation,” said de Juniac. |
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